Conjoint draft

Hypotheses addressed

• H3 (a–d, a2–d2): explores the effect of specific speaker characteristics for authority attribution

Justification

The real quotes in the vignette bundle several features together that we can’t separate: the speaker’s role, the speaker’s religion, the speaker’s known reputation (i.e. some people might really hate/like the pope or JD Vance; some people might not know or care that Mike Lee is LDS, etc.). By itself, the vignette can’t tell us which attribute of the messenger is actually shifting opinions.

A conjoint experiment lets us separate these different features since we can independently randomize role, religion, issue, view, and framing. We can find the AMCE on perceived authority—like, is it specifically religious framing that confers authority, or religious leadership, or a specific issue, etc., holding everything else constant?

The two experiments are complementary, since the conjoint lets us get clean causal identification of specific messenger attributes (though they’re hypothetical) while the vignette lets us get better external validity (since they’re real statements; though we can’t decompose messenger attributes because they’re all inherently bundled together).

Attributes and levels

Attribute	Levels
Role	Religious leader · Political leader
Religious tradition	Catholic · LDS · Evangelical · Muslim · Jewish
Issue	Immigration · Diversity/race · Foreign relations · Environment
View	Rights-expanding · Rights-restricting
Framing	Religious · Secular

To make this more natural and more vignette-like, we don’t use a standard conjoint table, but instead use a hypothetical speaker (with role and religion) saying a hypothetical statement (issue, view, framing).

Possible speakers

	role	tradition	descriptor
1	Religious leader	Catholic	a Catholic religious leader
2	Religious leader	LDS	an LDS religious leader
3	Religious leader	Evangelical	an Evangelical religious leader
4	Religious leader	Muslim	a Muslim religious leader
5	Religious leader	Jewish	a Jewish religious leader
6	Political leader	Catholic	a Catholic political leader
7	Political leader	LDS	an LDS political leader
8	Political leader	Evangelical	an Evangelical political leader
9	Political leader	Muslim	a Muslim political leader
10	Political leader	Jewish	a Jewish political leader

Possible statements

	Issue	View	Framing	Statement
1	Immigration	Rights-expanding	Religious	“As a matter of faith and human dignity, we have an obligation to welcome and protect migrants seeking a better life.”
2	Immigration	Rights-expanding	Secular	“As a matter of national interest, we should expand legal pathways for immigrants who contribute to our communities and economy.”
3	Immigration	Rights-restricting	Religious	“As a matter of protecting our families and communities, charity begins at home before it extends to strangers.”
4	Immigration	Rights-restricting	Secular	“As a matter of national interest, we must secure our borders and prioritize the safety of our own citizens first.”
5	Diversity/race	Rights-expanding	Religious	“As a matter of faith and human dignity, every person deserves equal dignity and protection regardless of race or background.”
6	Diversity/race	Rights-expanding	Secular	“As a matter of national interest, our country grows stronger when all people have equal opportunity and protection under the law.”
7	Diversity/race	Rights-restricting	Religious	“As a matter of preserving our shared traditions, we must protect our communities’ distinct heritage and identity.”
8	Diversity/race	Rights-restricting	Secular	“As a matter of national interest, policies that sort people by race and identity divide us and should be rolled back.”
9	Foreign relations	Rights-expanding (cooperation)	Religious	“As a matter of faith and human dignity, we are called to cooperate with and care for our neighbors across the globe.”
10	Foreign relations	Rights-expanding (cooperation)	Secular	“As a matter of national interest, working closely with our allies makes us safer and more prosperous.”
11	Foreign relations	Rights-restricting (America First)	Religious	“As a matter of protecting our own people, our first duty is to our own nation before any other.”
12	Foreign relations	Rights-restricting (America First)	Secular	“As a matter of national interest, America must put its own interests first and rely less on international institutions.”
13	Environment	Rights-expanding (pro-action)	Religious	“As a matter of faith and human dignity, we are called to protect God’s creation for future generations.”
14	Environment	Rights-expanding (pro-action)	Secular	“As a matter of national interest, investing in clean energy protects our health and strengthens our economy.”
15	Environment	Rights-restricting (anti-regulation)	Religious	“As a matter of stewardship and prudence, we must not sacrifice jobs and livelihoods for unproven environmental mandates.”
16	Environment	Rights-restricting (anti-regulation)	Secular	“As a matter of national interest, environmental regulations should not come at the cost of jobs and economic growth.”

Example question

This could also be limited to specific issue at a time (i.e. we hold the issue constant for the pair)

Speaker A	Speaker B
An Evangelical religious leader As a matter of national interest, investing in clean energy protects our health and strengthens our economy.	A Jewish political leader As a matter of national interest, policies that sort people by race and identity divide us and should be rolled back.

Using the slider below, how would you split your trust—how much weight you’d give each person’s view—between Speaker A and Speaker B on this issue?

All weight to Speaker A

Equal

All weight to Speaker B