General analysis

Author

Suparna Chaudhry and Andrew Heiss

Date

February 2, 2023

Code

library(tidyverse)
library(targets)
library(scales)
library(patchwork)
library(kableExtra)
library(sf)
library(here)

tar_config_set(store = here::here('_targets'),
               script = here::here('_targets.R'))

# Load things from targets
invisible(list2env(tar_read(graphic_functions), .GlobalEnv))
invisible(list2env(tar_read(misc_funs), .GlobalEnv))

df_donor <- tar_read(donor_level_data)
df_donor_us <- tar_read(donor_level_data_usaid)

df_country_aid <- tar_read(country_aid_final)
df_country_aid_laws <- filter(df_country_aid, laws)

df_autocracies <- tar_read(autocracies)

vars_to_summarize <- tar_read(var_details) %>% 
  mutate(summary_order = 1:n())
tar_load(c(ngo_index_table, regulations))

tar_load(c(civicus_map_data, civicus_clean))


my_seed <- 1234
set.seed(my_seed)

Overall data summary

Code

num_countries <- df_country_aid_laws %>% distinct(gwcode) %>% nrow()
num_years <- df_country_aid_laws %>% distinct(year) %>% nrow()
year_first <- df_country_aid_laws %>% distinct(year) %>% min()
year_last <- df_country_aid_laws %>% distinct(year) %>% max()

Our data includes information about 142 countries across 24 years (from 1990–2013)

Summary of variables in model

(From our AJPS submission): The values here are slightly different from what we had at ISA and MPSA (and our ISQ submission) because we’re now using V-Dem 8.0 and AidData 3.1.

And now the values are even different-er, since we’re using V-Dem 10.0 and have really clean data now.

Code

vars_summarized <- df_country_aid_laws %>%
  select(one_of(vars_to_summarize$term)) %>%
  mutate(total_oda = total_oda / 1000000) %>%
  mutate(gdpcap_log = exp(gdpcap_log)) %>% 
  pivot_longer(names_to = "term", values_to = "value", everything()) %>%
  filter(!is.na(value)) %>% 
  group_by(term) %>%
  summarize(N = n(),
            Mean = mean(value),
            Median = median(value),
            `Std. Dev.` = sd(value),
            Min = min(value),
            Max = max(value)) %>% 
  ungroup() %>% 
  left_join(vars_to_summarize, by = "term") %>%
  arrange(summary_order) %>%
  mutate(across(c(Mean, `Std. Dev.`, Median, Min, Max),
                ~case_when(
                  format == "percent" ~ percent_format(accuracy = 0.1)(.),
                  format == "dollar" ~ dollar_format(accuracy = 1)(.),
                  format == "number" ~ comma_format(accuracy = 0.1)(.)))) %>% 
  mutate(N = comma(N)) %>% 
  select(category, subcategory, Variable = term_clean_table, Source = source, 
         Mean, `Std. Dev.`, Median, Min, Max, N)

vars_summarized %>% 
  select(-category, ` ` = subcategory) %>% 
  kbl() %>% 
  kable_styling() %>% 
  pack_rows(index = table(fct_inorder(vars_summarized$category))) %>% 
  collapse_rows(columns = 1, valign = "top") %>% 
  unclass() %>% cat()

	Variable	Source	Mean	Std. Dev.	Median	Min	Max	N
Outcome
	Total aid (constant 2011 USD, millions)	OECD and AidData	$1,316	$2,968	$483	$0	$63,233	3,293
	Proportion of contentious aid	OECD and AidData	7.1%	10.5%	3.3%	0.0%	100.0%	3,293
	Proportion of aid to domestic NGOs	USAID	4.1%	13.8%	0.1%	0.0%	100.0%	3,293
	Proportion of aid to foreign NGOs	USAID	13.1%	20.3%	0.7%	0.0%	100.0%	3,293
Treatment
	Total legal barriers	Chaudhry (2016)	1.5	1.9	1.0	0.0	9.5	3,293
	Barriers to advocacy	Chaudhry (2016)	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.0	2.0	3,293
	Barriers to entry	Chaudhry (2016)	0.8	0.9	1.0	0.0	3.0	3,293
	Barriers to funding	Chaudhry (2016)	0.4	0.9	0.0	0.0	4.5	3,293
	Core civil society index	Chaudhry (2016)	0.6	0.3	0.7	0.0	1.0	3,293
Confounders
Human rights and politics	Electoral democracy index (polyarchy)	Coppedge et al. (2020)	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.9	3,293
	Political corruption index	Coppedge et al. (2020)	0.6	0.3	0.7	0.0	1.0	3,293
	Rule of law index	Coppedge et al. (2020)	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.0	1.0	3,293
	Civil liberties index	Coppedge et al. (2020)	0.6	0.2	0.7	0.0	1.0	3,293
	Physical violence index	Coppedge et al. (2020)	0.6	0.3	0.6	0.0	1.0	3,293
	Private civil liberties index	Coppedge et al. (2020)	0.6	0.3	0.7	0.0	1.0	3,293
Economics and development	GDP per capita (constant 2011 USD)	UN	$6,359	$10,440	$2,726	$92	$82,410	3,293
	Trade as % of GDP	UN	78.1%	46.0%	69.2%	1.9%	441.6%	3,293
	Educational equality	Coppedge et al. (2020)	0.1	1.3	-0.1	-3.2	3.6	3,293
	Health equality	Coppedge et al. (2020)	0.1	1.4	-0.1	-3.3	3.5	3,293
	Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 births)	Coppedge et al. (2020)	45.3	34.6	35.9	2.2	171.0	3,293
Unexpected shocks	Internal conflict in last 5 years	UCDP/PRIO	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.0	1.0	3,293
Unexpected shocks	Natural disasters	EM-DAT	2.1	3.5	1.0	0.0	43.0	3,293

Aid stuff

Overall OECD aid

Code

total_oecd_aid <- df_country_aid_laws %>%
  summarise(total = dollar(sum(total_oda))) %>% 
  pull(total)

OECD members donated $4,333,135,732,679 between 1990 and 2013.

Code

plot_aid <- df_country_aid_laws %>%
  filter(year <= 2013) %>% 
  group_by(year) %>%
  summarise(total = sum(total_oda)) %>% 
  mutate(fake_facet_title = "ODA commitments (all OECD)")

fig_oecd_aid <- ggplot(plot_aid, aes(x = year, y = (total / 1000000000))) + 
  geom_line(size = 0.5) +
  labs(x = NULL, y = "Billions of USD") +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = dollar) +
  coord_cartesian(xlim = c(1990, 2015)) +
  theme_donors() + 
  facet_wrap(vars(fake_facet_title))
## Warning: Using `size` aesthetic for lines was deprecated in ggplot2 3.4.0.
## ℹ Please use `linewidth` instead.
fig_oecd_aid

Proportion of contentious vs. noncontentious aid

Code

df_donor %>%
  filter(year >= 1990) %>%
  group_by(purpose_contentiousness) %>%
  summarise(Total = sum(oda)) %>%
  ungroup() %>% 
  mutate(Percent = Total / sum(Total)) %>%
  mutate(Total = dollar(Total), 
         Percent = percent_format(accuracy = 0.1)(Percent)) %>% 
  rename(`Contentiousness` = purpose_contentiousness) %>% 
  kbl() %>% 
  kable_styling(full_width = FALSE)

Contentiousness	Total	Percent
High	$267,373,936,986	6.2%
Low	$4,071,293,867,271	93.8%

Code

plot_aid_contentiousness <- df_donor %>%
  filter(year >= 1990) %>%
  group_by(year, purpose_contentiousness) %>%
  summarise(total = sum(oda)) %>%
  mutate(perc = total / sum(total)) %>%
  filter(purpose_contentiousness == "High") %>% 
  mutate(fake_facet_title = "Contentious aid (all OECD)")

fig_oecd_contention <- ggplot(plot_aid_contentiousness, aes(x = year, y = perc)) + 
  geom_line(size = 0.5) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = percent_format(accuracy = 1)) + 
  labs(x = NULL, y = "Percent") +
  coord_cartesian(xlim = c(1990, 2015)) +
  theme_donors() +
  facet_wrap(vars(fake_facet_title))
fig_oecd_contention

USAID aid

Code

total_us_aid <- df_country_aid_laws %>%
  summarise(total = dollar(sum(oda_us))) %>% 
  pull(total)

total_us_aid_post_2000 <- df_country_aid_laws %>%
  filter(year > 1999) %>%
  summarise(total = dollar(sum(oda_us))) %>% 
  pull(total)

The US donated $372,941,015,547 between 1990 and 2014 and $249,318,427,528 between 2000 and 2014.

Code

plot_aid_us <- df_country_aid_laws %>%
  filter(year >= 1990) %>% 
  group_by(year) %>%
  summarise(total = sum(oda_us)) %>% 
  mutate(fake_facet_title = "ODA commitments (USAID only)")

fig_us_aid <- ggplot(plot_aid_us, aes(x = year, y = (total / 1000000000))) + 
  geom_line(size = 0.5) +
  expand_limits(y = 0) +
  labs(x = NULL, y = "Billions of USD") +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = dollar) +
  coord_cartesian(xlim = c(1990, 2015)) +
  theme_donors() +
  facet_wrap(vars(fake_facet_title))
fig_us_aid

Proportion of US aid to types of NGOs

Total amounts over time:

Code

usaid_total <- df_country_aid_laws %>% 
  summarise(total = sum(oda_us)) %>% pull(total)

channels_nice <- tribble(
  ~channel,         ~channel_clean,
  "oda_us_ngo_dom", "Domestic NGOs",
  "oda_us_ngo_int", "International NGOs",
  "oda_us_ngo_us",  "US-based NGOs"
)

df_country_aid_laws %>%
  pivot_longer(names_to = "channel", values_to = "total_oda_us",
               c(oda_us_ngo_dom, oda_us_ngo_int, oda_us_ngo_us)) %>% 
  group_by(channel) %>%
  summarise(total = sum(total_oda_us)) %>%
  ungroup() %>% 
  left_join(channels_nice, by = "channel") %>% 
  mutate(perc = total / usaid_total) %>%
  mutate(total = dollar(total), perc = percent(perc)) %>% 
  select(Channel = channel_clean, Total = total, Percent = perc) %>% 
  kbl() %>% 
  kable_styling(full_width = FALSE)

Channel	Total	Percent
Domestic NGOs	$6,260,665,669	1.7%
International NGOs	$13,963,319,102	3.7%
US-based NGOs	$28,903,292,740	7.8%

The US clearly favors US-based NGOs or international NGOs over domestic NGOs.

Code

usaid_total_yearly <- df_country_aid_laws %>%
  group_by(year) %>%
  summarise(annual_total = sum(oda_us)) %>% 
  mutate(fake_facet_title = "USAID ODA channeled through NGOs")

plot_usaid_channel <- df_country_aid_laws %>%
  filter(year >= 1990) %>% 
  pivot_longer(names_to = "channel", values_to = "total_oda_us", 
               c(oda_us_ngo_dom, oda_us_ngo_int, oda_us_ngo_us)) %>%
  group_by(year, channel) %>%
  summarise(total = sum(total_oda_us)) %>%
  left_join(usaid_total_yearly, by = "year") %>%
  mutate(perc = total / annual_total) %>%
  left_join(channels_nice, by = "channel")

fig_usaid_channel <- ggplot(plot_usaid_channel, 
                            aes(x = year, y = perc, colour = channel_clean)) + 
  geom_line(size = 0.5) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = percent_format(accuracy = 1)) + 
  scale_colour_manual(values = clrs$Sunset[c(2, 5, 7)]) +
  labs(x = NULL, y = "Percent") +
  guides(colour = guide_legend(title = NULL, reverse = TRUE, nrow = 2)) +
  coord_cartesian(xlim = c(1990, 2015)) +
  theme_donors() + 
  facet_wrap(vars(fake_facet_title))
fig_usaid_channel

USAID data categorizes all aid as government-channeled before 2000 because of some quirk in the data.

Code

plot_usaid_channels_all <- df_donor_us %>%
  group_by(year, implementing_partner_sub_category_name) %>%
  summarise(total = sum(oda_us_2011)) %>%
  mutate(perc = total / sum(total)) %>%
  mutate(channel = ifelse(str_detect(implementing_partner_sub_category_name, "NGO"), "NGO", "Other"))

ggplot(plot_usaid_channels_all, 
       aes(x = year, y = perc, colour = implementing_partner_sub_category_name)) + 
  geom_line(size = 0.5) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = percent_format(accuracy = 1)) + 
  labs(x = NULL, y = "Percent of US aid given through different channels") +
  guides(colour = guide_legend(title = NULL, ncol = 2)) +
  theme_donors()

So we just look at aid after 2000.

Code

fig_usaid_channel_trimmed <- fig_usaid_channel +
  coord_cartesian(xlim = c(2000, 2015))
fig_usaid_channel_trimmed

All DV figures combined

Code

fig_dvs <- (fig_oecd_aid + fig_oecd_contention) / 
  (fig_us_aid + fig_usaid_channel_trimmed) &
  theme_donors(base_size = 10) +
  theme(legend.text = element_text(size = rel(0.6)),
        axis.title.y = element_text(margin = margin(r = 3)),
        legend.box.margin = margin(t = -0.5, unit = "lines"))

fig_dvs

Code

# ggsave(here("analysis", "output", "fig-dvs.pdf"), fig_dvs,
#        width = 6.5, height = 4.75, device = cairo_pdf)
# ggsave(here("analysis", "output", "fig-dvs.png"), fig_dvs,
#        width = 6.5, height = 4.75, res = 300, device = ragg::agg_png)

Legal restrictions on NGOs

DCJW / Chaudhry indexes

Code

ngo_index_table <- ngo_index_table %>% 
  mutate(Index_nice = paste0(Index, " (max: ", Max, ")"))

ngo_index_table %>% 
  select(`Restriction description` = Description, Coding) %>% 
  kbl(align = c("l", "l"),
      caption = "Description of indexes of NGO barriers") %>% 
  kable_styling() %>% 
  pack_rows(index = table(fct_inorder(ngo_index_table$Index_nice)),
            indent = FALSE)

Description of indexes of NGO barriers
Restriction description	Coding
Barriers to entry (max: 3)
How burdensome is registration?	Not burdensome = 0; Burdensome = 1
In law, can an NGO appeal if denied registration?	Yes = 0; No = 1
Are barriers to entry different for NGOs receiving foreign funds?	Less burdensome = -1; Same = 0; More burdensome = 1
Barriers to funding (max: 5)
Do NGOs need prior approval from the government to receive foreign funding?	Yes = 1; No = 0
Are NGOs required to channel foreign funding through state-owned banks or government ministries?	Yes = 1; No = 0
Are any additional restrictions on foreign support in place?	Yes = 1; No = 0
Are all NGOs prohibited from receiving foreign funds?	No = 0; Partially = 0.5; Yes = 1
Is a category of NGOs prohibited from receiving foreign funds?	No = 0; Partially = 0.5; Yes = 1
Barriers to advocacy (max: 2)
Does the law restrict NGOs from engaging in political activities?	No = 0; Partially = 0.5; Yes = 1
Are restrictions on political activities different for NGOs receiving foreign funds?	Less restrictive = -1; Same = 0; More restrictive = 1

NGO barriers over time

Code

regulations <- regulations %>% 
  filter(!ignore_in_index) %>% 
  mutate(barrier_group = paste0("Barriers to ", str_to_lower(barrier))) %>% 
  select(barrier_group, barrier = question_clean, barrier_display = question_display)

df_barriers <- df_country_aid_laws %>% 
  group_by(gwcode, year) %>% 
  summarize(across(one_of(regulations$barrier), ~. > 0)) %>% 
  group_by(year) %>% 
  summarize(across(-gwcode, ~sum(.))) %>% 
  ungroup() %>% 
  pivot_longer(names_to = "barrier", values_to = "value", -year) %>% 
  left_join(regulations, by = "barrier") %>% 
  mutate(barrier_display = str_replace(barrier_display, "XXX", "\n")) %>% 
  arrange(desc(value)) %>% 
  mutate(barrier_display = fct_inorder(barrier_display, ordered = TRUE))

dcjw_entry_plot <- ggplot(filter(df_barriers, 
                                 barrier_group == "Barriers to entry"), 
                          aes(x = year, y = value, 
                              color = barrier_display,
                              linetype = barrier_display)) +
  geom_line(size = 0.5) +
  expand_limits(y = c(0, 90)) +
  scale_y_continuous(sec.axis = sec_axis(~ . / num_countries,
                                         labels = percent_format(accuracy = 1)),
                     expand = c(0, 0)) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = c("black", "grey80", "grey50"), name = NULL) +
  scale_linetype_manual(values = c("solid", "solid", "21"), name = NULL) +
  coord_cartesian(xlim = c(1990, 2015), ylim = c(0, 90)) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(nrow = 2)) +
  labs(x = NULL, y = "Number of countries") +
  theme_donors(10) + 
  theme(legend.justification = "left") +
  facet_wrap(vars(barrier_group))

dcjw_funding_plot <- ggplot(filter(df_barriers, 
                                   barrier_group == "Barriers to funding"), 
                            aes(x = year, y = value, 
                                color = barrier_display,
                                linetype = barrier_display)) +
  geom_line(size = 0.5) +
  scale_y_continuous(sec.axis = sec_axis(~ . / num_countries,
                                         labels = percent_format(accuracy = 1)),
                     expand = c(0, 0)) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = c("black", "grey80", "grey50", "black", "grey80"), name = NULL) +
  scale_linetype_manual(values = c("solid", "solid", "solid", "21", "21"), name = NULL) +
  coord_cartesian(xlim = c(1990, 2015), ylim = c(0, 40)) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(nrow = 3),
         linetype = guide_legend(nrow = 3)) +
  labs(x = NULL, y = "Number of countries") +
  theme_donors(10) + 
  theme(legend.justification = "left") +
  facet_wrap(vars(barrier_group))

dcjw_advocacy_plot <- ggplot(filter(df_barriers, 
                                    barrier_group == "Barriers to advocacy"), 
                            aes(x = year, y = value, 
                                color = barrier_display)) +
  geom_line(size = 0.5) +
  scale_y_continuous(sec.axis = sec_axis(~ . / num_countries,
                                         labels = percent_format(accuracy = 1)),
                     expand = c(0, 0)) +
  scale_colour_manual(values = c("black", "grey80"), name = NULL) +
  coord_cartesian(xlim = c(1990, 2015), ylim = c(0, 60)) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(nrow = 1)) +
  labs(x = NULL, y = "Number of countries") +
  theme_donors(10) + 
  theme(legend.justification = "left") +
  facet_wrap(vars(barrier_group))

df_ccsi_plot <- df_country_aid %>%
  left_join(df_autocracies, by = "gwcode") %>%
  group_by(year, autocracy) %>%
  nest() %>% 
  mutate(cis = data %>% map(~ mean_cl_normal(.$v2xcs_ccsi))) %>% 
  unnest(cis) %>% 
  ungroup() %>% 
  mutate(fake_facet_title = "Core civil society index",
         autocracy = factor(autocracy, 
                            labels = c("Democracies (Regimes of the World > 4)",
                                       "Non-democracies (Regimes of the World ≤ 4)"), 
                            ordered = TRUE))

fig_ccsi <- ggplot(df_ccsi_plot, aes(x = year, y = y)) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = ymin, ymax = ymax, fill = autocracy), alpha = 0.2) +
  geom_line(aes(color = autocracy), size = 0.5) +
  annotate(geom = "text", x = 2015, y = 0.1, hjust = "right", size = pts(7),
           label = "Higher values = more open civil society") +
  scale_colour_manual(values = c("black", "grey75"), name = NULL) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("black", "grey75"), name = NULL) +
  scale_linetype_manual(values = c("solid", "solid", "21")) +
  coord_cartesian(xlim = c(1990, 2015), ylim = c(0, 1)) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(nrow = 2)) +
  labs(y = "Average", x = NULL) +
  theme_donors(10) +
  theme(legend.justification = "left") +
  facet_wrap(vars(fake_facet_title))

barriers_summary <- 
  ((dcjw_entry_plot + dcjw_funding_plot) / 
     (dcjw_advocacy_plot + fig_ccsi)) &
  theme(legend.text = element_text(size = rel(0.6)),
        axis.title.y = element_text(margin = margin(r = 3)),
        legend.box.margin = margin(t = -0.5, unit = "lines"))

barriers_summary

Code

# ggsave(here("analysis", "output", "fig-barriers-summary.pdf"), barriers_summary,
#        width = 6.5, height = 6, device = cairo_pdf)
# ggsave(here("analysis", "output", "fig-barriers-summary.png"), barriers_summary,
#        width = 6.5, height = 6, res = 300, device = ragg::agg_png)

Compulsory vs. burdensome registration

Laws requiring NGO registration aren’t necessarily a sign of oppression—even the US requires that nonprofits that earn above a certain threshold register as 501(c)(3) organizations. Though the figure below shows that compulsory regulation have increased over time, actual restriction has occurred too. Burdensome registration is not just another standard layer of bureaucracy.

Code

df_regulation <- df_country_aid_laws %>%
  left_join(select(df_autocracies, gwcode, autocracy), by = "gwcode") %>%
  group_by(year, autocracy) %>%
  summarise(`Registration required` = sum(ngo_register) / n(),
            `Registration burdensome` = sum(ngo_register_burden) / n()) %>%
  ungroup() %>% 
  pivot_longer(names_to = "type_of_law", values_to = "value", -c(year, autocracy)) %>% 
  mutate(autocracy = 
           factor(autocracy, levels = c(TRUE, FALSE),
                  labels = c("Non-democracies", "Democracies")))

fig_regulation_burden <- ggplot(df_regulation, 
                                aes(x = year, y = value, color = type_of_law)) +
  geom_line(size = 0.5) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = percent_format(accuracy = 1)) +
  scale_x_continuous(expand = c(0, 0)) +
  coord_cartesian(ylim = c(0, 0.7), xlim = c(1990, 2014)) +
  guides(colour = guide_legend(title = NULL)) +
  labs(x = NULL, y = "Proportion of countries\nwith regulation") +
  theme_donors(10) +
  facet_wrap(vars(autocracy))

fig_regulation_burden

Code

# ggsave(here("analysis", "output", "fig-regulation-burden.pdf"), fig_dvs,
#        width = 6, height = 2.5, device = cairo_pdf)
# ggsave(here("analysis", "output", "fig-regulation-burden.png"), fig_dvs,
#        width = 6, height = 2.5, res = 300, device = ragg::agg_png)

Aid

Aid over time, by donor type

Code

aid_donor_type_time <- df_donor %>%
  group_by(year, donor_type_collapsed) %>%
  summarise(total_aid = sum(oda, na.rm = TRUE))

ggplot(aid_donor_type_time, aes(x = year, y = total_aid / 1000000000,
                                colour = donor_type_collapsed)) +
  geom_line(size = 0.5) +
  labs(x = NULL, y = "Billions of USD",
       caption = "Source: OECD and AidData. 2011 dollars.") +
  guides(colour = guide_legend(title = NULL)) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = dollar) + 
  theme_donors()

Aid over time, by contentiousness

Code

aid_contention_time <- df_donor %>%
  group_by(year, purpose_contentiousness) %>%
  summarise(total_aid = sum(oda, na.rm = TRUE))

ggplot(aid_contention_time, aes(x = year, y = total_aid / 1000000000,
                                colour = purpose_contentiousness)) +
  geom_line(size = 0.5) +
  labs(x = NULL, y = "Billions of USD",
       caption = "Source: OECD and AidData. 2011 dollars.") +
  guides(colour = guide_legend(title = NULL)) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = dollar) + 
  theme_donors()

Restrictions and aid

Code

inv_logit <- function(f, a) {
  a <- (1 - 2 * a)
  (a * (1 + exp(f)) + (exp(f) - 1)) / (2 * a * (1 + exp(f)))
}

dvs_clean_names <- tribble(
  ~barrier, ~barrier_clean,
  "barriers_total", "All barriers",
  "advocacy", "Barriers to advocacy",
  "entry", "Barriers to entry",
  "funding", "Barriers to funding"
)

ivs_clean_names <- tribble(
  ~variable, ~variable_clean, ~hypothesis,
  "total_oda_lead1", "Total ODA", "H1",
  "prop_contentious_lead1", "Contentious aid", "H2",
  "prop_ngo_dom_lead1", "Aid to domestic NGOs", "H3",
  "prop_ngo_foreign_lead1", "Aid to foreign NGOs", "H3"
)

Restrictions and ODA (H₁)

Code

df_plot_barriers_oda <- df_country_aid_laws %>% 
  select(year, gwcode, country, total_oda_lead1,
         one_of(dvs_clean_names$barrier)) %>% 
  pivot_longer(names_to = "barrier", values_to = "value", 
               one_of(dvs_clean_names$barrier)) %>% 
  left_join(dvs_clean_names, by = "barrier") %>% 
  mutate(barrier_clean = fct_inorder(barrier_clean, ordered = TRUE))

ggplot(df_plot_barriers_oda, 
       aes(x = value, y = total_oda_lead1, color = barrier_clean)) +
  geom_point(alpha = 0.5) +
  stat_smooth(method = "lm") +
  stat_smooth(data = filter(df_plot_barriers_oda, 
                            total_oda_lead1 > 10000000000), 
              method = "lm", linetype = "21") +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = dollar) +
  guides(color = "none") +
  labs(x = "Number of legal barriers", y = "Total ODA in next year",
       title = "Total ODA in next year",
       subtitle = "Dotted lines show trends when omitting observations\nwith less than $10,000,000,000 in ODA") +
  theme_donors(10) +
  theme(strip.text.x = element_text(margin = margin(t = 1, b = 1))) +
  facet_wrap(vars(barrier_clean), scales = "free_x", nrow = 2)

Restrictions and contentiousness (H₂)

Code

df_plot_barriers_contention <- df_country_aid_laws %>% 
  select(year, gwcode, country, prop_contentious_lead1,
         one_of(dvs_clean_names$barrier))  %>% 
  pivot_longer(names_to = "barrier", values_to = "value", 
               one_of(dvs_clean_names$barrier)) %>% 
  left_join(dvs_clean_names, by = "barrier") %>% 
  mutate(barrier_clean = fct_inorder(barrier_clean, ordered = TRUE))

ggplot(df_plot_barriers_contention, 
       aes(x = value, y = prop_contentious_lead1, color = barrier_clean)) +
  geom_point(alpha = 0.5) +
  stat_smooth(method = "lm") +
  stat_smooth(data = filter(df_plot_barriers_contention, 
                            prop_contentious_lead1 > 0.05), 
              method = "lm", linetype = "21") +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = percent) +
  guides(color = "none") +
  labs(x = "Number of legal barriers", 
       y = "Proportion of contentious aid in next year",
       title = "Proportion of contentious aid in next year",
       subtitle = "Dotted lines show trends when omitting observations\nwith less than 5% contentious aid") +
  theme_donors(10) +
  theme(strip.text.x = element_text(margin = margin(t = 1, b = 1))) +
  facet_wrap(vars(barrier_clean), scales = "free_x", nrow = 2)

Restrictions and NGOs (H₃)

Code

df_plot_barriers_ngos <- df_country_aid_laws %>% 
  select(year, gwcode, country, 
         prop_ngo_dom_lead1, prop_ngo_foreign_lead1,
         one_of(dvs_clean_names$barrier)) %>% 
  pivot_longer(names_to = "barrier", values_to = "value", 
               one_of(dvs_clean_names$barrier)) %>% 
  pivot_longer(names_to = "ngo_type", values_to = "prop_ngo", 
               c(prop_ngo_dom_lead1, prop_ngo_foreign_lead1)) %>% 
  left_join(dvs_clean_names, by = "barrier") %>% 
  left_join(ivs_clean_names, by = c("ngo_type" = "variable")) %>% 
  mutate(barrier_clean = fct_inorder(barrier_clean, ordered = TRUE))

ggplot(df_plot_barriers_ngos, 
       aes(x = value, y = prop_ngo, color = barrier_clean)) +
  geom_point(alpha = 0.5) +
  stat_smooth(method = "lm") +
  stat_smooth(data = filter(df_plot_barriers_ngos, 
                            prop_ngo > 0.05), 
              method = "lm", linetype = "21") +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = percent) +
  guides(color = "none") +
  labs(x = "Number of legal barriers", 
       y = "Proportion of aid to NGOs in next year",
       title = "Proportion of aid channeled to types of NGOs in next year",
       subtitle = "Dotted lines show trends when omitting observations\nwith less than 5% aid to NGOs") +
  coord_cartesian(ylim = c(0, 1)) +
  theme_donors(10) +
  theme(strip.text.x = element_text(margin = margin(t = 1, b = 1))) +
  facet_wrap(vars(variable_clean, barrier_clean), scales = "free_x", ncol = 4)

CCSI and all DVs (all hypotheses)

Code

df_plot_ccsi_ngos <- df_country_aid_laws %>% 
  select(year, gwcode, country, 
         one_of(ivs_clean_names$variable), v2xcs_ccsi) %>% 
  pivot_longer(names_to = "variable", values_to = "value", 
               c(one_of(ivs_clean_names$variable))) %>% 
  left_join(ivs_clean_names, by = "variable") %>% 
  mutate(hypothesis_clean = paste0(hypothesis, ": ", variable_clean)) %>% 
  arrange(hypothesis_clean) %>% 
  mutate(hypothesis_clean = fct_inorder(hypothesis_clean, ordered = TRUE))
  
ggplot(df_plot_ccsi_ngos, 
       aes(x = v2xcs_ccsi, y = value, color = hypothesis)) +
  geom_point(alpha = 0.25) +
  scale_color_viridis_d(option = "plasma", end = 0.9) +
  guides(color = "none") +
  labs(x = "Civil society index", 
       y = "Variable value in next year",
       title = "Core civil society index") +
  theme_donors() +
  facet_wrap(vars(hypothesis_clean), scales = "free_y")

CIVICUS restrictions

Code

civicus_clean %>% 
  filter(!is.na(category)) %>% 
  count(Rating = category, name = "Count") %>% 
  arrange(desc(Rating)) %>% 
  kbl(align = c("l", "c")) %>% 
  kable_styling(full_width = FALSE)

Rating	Count
Open	42
Narrowed	40
Obstructed	47
Repressed	44
Closed	23

Code

plot_civicus_map <- ggplot() +
  geom_sf(data = civicus_map_data, aes(fill = fct_rev(category)), size = 0.15, color = "black") +
  coord_sf(crs = st_crs("ESRI:54030"), datum = NA) +  # Robinson
  # scale_fill_manual(values = c("grey90", "grey70", "grey45",
  #                              "grey20", "black"),
  #                   na.translate = FALSE, name = "Civic space") +
  scale_fill_viridis_d(option = "plasma", end = 0.9, 
                       na.translate = FALSE, name = "Civic space") +
  theme_donors_map() + 
  theme(legend.position = "bottom",
        legend.key.size = unit(0.7, "lines"))

plot_civicus_map

Code

# ggsave(here("analysis", "output", "fig-civicus-map.pdf"), plot_civicus_map,
#        width = 5.5, height = 3, device = cairo_pdf)
# ggsave(here("analysis", "output", "fig-civicus-map-new.png"), plot_civicus_map,
#        width = 5.5, height = 3, res = 300, device = ragg::agg_png)

List of countries included in models

Code

ncol_countries <- 4

all_countries <- df_country_aid_laws %>% 
  distinct(country) %>% 
  arrange(country) %>% 
  pull(country) 

countries_caption <- paste0("All countries included in models (N = ", 
                            length(all_countries), ")")

all_countries %>% 
  matrix_from_vector(ncol = ncol_countries) %>% 
  kbl(caption = countries_caption) %>% 
  kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("condensed", "striped"), 
                full_width = FALSE)

All countries included in models (N = 142)
Afghanistan	Ecuador	Liberia	Saudi Arabia
Albania	Egypt	Libya	Senegal
Algeria	El Salvador	Lithuania	Serbia
Angola	Equatorial Guinea	Madagascar	Sierra Leone
Argentina	Eritrea	Malawi	Singapore
Armenia	Estonia	Malaysia	Slovakia
Azerbaijan	Eswatini	Mali	Slovenia
Bahrain	Ethiopia	Mauritania	Solomon Islands
Bangladesh	Fiji	Mauritius	Somalia
Belarus	Gabon	Mexico	South Africa
Benin	Gambia	Moldova	South Korea
Bhutan	Georgia	Mongolia	South Sudan
Bolivia	Ghana	Montenegro	Sri Lanka
Bosnia & Herzegovina	Guatemala	Morocco	Sudan
Botswana	Guinea	Mozambique	Syria
Brazil	Guinea-Bissau	Myanmar (Burma)	Tajikistan
Bulgaria	Guyana	Namibia	Tanzania
Burkina Faso	Haiti	Nepal	Thailand
Burundi	Honduras	Nicaragua	Timor-Leste
Cambodia	Hungary	Niger	Togo
Cameroon	India	Nigeria	Trinidad & Tobago
Central African Republic	Indonesia	North Korea	Tunisia
Chile	Iran	North Macedonia	Turkey
China	Iraq	Oman	Turkmenistan
Colombia	Israel	Pakistan	Uganda
Comoros	Jamaica	Panama	Ukraine
Congo - Brazzaville	Jordan	Papua New Guinea	United Arab Emirates
Congo - Kinshasa	Kazakhstan	Paraguay	Uruguay
Costa Rica	Kenya	Peru	Uzbekistan
Côte d’Ivoire	Kosovo	Philippines	Venezuela
Croatia	Kuwait	Poland	Vietnam
Cuba	Kyrgyzstan	Portugal	Yemen
Cyprus	Laos	Qatar	Zambia
Czechia	Latvia	Romania	Zimbabwe
Djibouti	Lebanon	Russia
Dominican Republic	Lesotho	Rwanda

References

Chaudhry, Suparna. 2016. “The Assault on Democracy Assistance: Explaining State Repression of NGOs.” PhD thesis, New Haven, Connecticut: Yale University. https://search.proquest.com/openview/565714add45860f9017f71bd33d89800/.

Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Staffan I. Lindberg, Jan Teorell, David Altman, Michael Bernhard, et al. 2020. “V-Dem [Country-Year/Country-Date] Dataset V10.” Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. https://doi.org/10.23696/vdemds20.

Overall data summary

Summary of variables in model

Aid stuff

Overall OECD aid

Proportion of contentious vs. noncontentious aid

USAID aid

Proportion of US aid to types of NGOs

All DV figures combined

Legal restrictions on NGOs

DCJW / Chaudhry indexes

NGO barriers over time

Compulsory vs. burdensome registration

Aid

Aid over time, by donor type

Aid over time, by contentiousness

Restrictions and aid

Restrictions and ODA (H1)

Restrictions and contentiousness (H2)

Restrictions and NGOs (H3)

CCSI and all DVs (all hypotheses)

CIVICUS restrictions

List of countries included in models

References

Restrictions and ODA (H₁)

Restrictions and contentiousness (H₂)

Restrictions and NGOs (H₃)