General analysis

library(tidyverse)
library(targets)
library(scales)
library(ggbeeswarm)
library(patchwork)
library(here)

# Generated via random.org
set.seed(9951)

matrix_from_vector <- function(x, ncol) {
  n_balanced <- ceiling(length(x) / ncol) * ncol
  matrix(c(x, rep(NA, n_balanced - length(x))), ncol = ncol)
}

# Load data
# Need to use this withr thing because tar_read() and tar_load() need to see the
# _targets folder in the current directory, but this .Rmd file is in a subfolder
withr::with_dir(here::here(), {
  source(tar_read(plot_funs))
  
  tar_load(pandem_clean)
  tar_load(pandem_single)
  tar_load(derogations_clean)
  tar_load(vdem_clean)
  tar_load(pandem_derog)
})

V-Dem pandemic emergency declarations

A majority of countries made some sort of official public health response to the pandemic, and most used legal avenues for their responses: 80% of countries used legal instruments to declare public emergencies at some point during 2020, while 16% used extralegal avenues. Only a handful had no official national emergency response throughout 2020: Canada, China, Germany, Nicaragua, and North Korea.

pandem_single %>% 
  count(emlaw_cond_min) %>% 
  mutate(prop = n / sum(n))

emlaw_cond_min	n	prop
Emergency response with legal instruments	116	0.8055556
Emergency response without legal instruments	23	0.1597222
No emergency response	5	0.0347222

pandem_single %>% 
  count(emlaw_fct_min) %>% 
  mutate(prop = n / sum(n))

emlaw_fct_min	n	prop
Declaration in existing legal framework	49	0.3402778
Declaration in existing legal framework, distinguishes public health emergency	15	0.1041667
Declaration of disaster where different from emergency	8	0.0555556
Declaration using other legislation	44	0.3055556
Emergency response without legal instruments	23	0.1597222
No emergency response	5	0.0347222

pandem_single %>% 
  filter(emlaw_cond_min == "No emergency response") %>% 
  select(country_name, emlaw_cond)

country_name	emlaw_cond
Canada	No emergency response
China	No emergency response
Germany	No emergency response
Nicaragua	No emergency response
North Korea	No emergency response

There are distinct patterns that help determine which kind of response a country made. There is a uniform distribution of adherence to democratic values within countries that used legal methods for declaring emergencies. For instance, both Denmark and Tajikistan used legal instruments to declare their respective emergencies. However, among countries that declared emergencies without any legal instruments, there are no countries that score above 0.5 on V-Dem’s liberal democracy index.

This is also true when looking at regime type specifically. Only one democracy—Sri Lanka—declared an emergency extralegally.

pandem_single %>% 
  group_by(emlaw_cond_min) %>% 
  arrange(v2x_libdem) %>% 
  slice(c(1, 2, n() - 1, n())) %>% 
  select(country_name, emlaw_cond_min, v2x_libdem)

country_name	emlaw_cond_min	v2x_libdem
Tajikistan	Emergency response with legal instruments	0.062
Azerbaijan	Emergency response with legal instruments	0.070
Sweden	Emergency response with legal instruments	0.829
Denmark	Emergency response with legal instruments	0.858
Eritrea	Emergency response without legal instruments	0.012
Saudi Arabia	Emergency response without legal instruments	0.040
Benin	Emergency response without legal instruments	0.461
Sri Lanka	Emergency response without legal instruments	0.469
North Korea	No emergency response	0.014
China	No emergency response	0.050
Canada	No emergency response	0.776
Germany	No emergency response	0.779

pandem_single %>% 
  ggplot(aes(y = fct_rev(emlaw_cond_min), x = v2x_libdem, color = emlaw_cond_min)) +
  geom_quasirandom(groupOnX = FALSE, width = 0.1) +
  guides(color = FALSE) +
  scale_color_viridis_d(option = "plasma", end = 0.8) +
  scale_y_discrete(labels = function(x) str_wrap(x, width = 15)) +
  coord_cartesian(xlim = c(0, 1)) +
  labs(x = "V-Dem liberal democracy index", y = NULL,
       caption = "Lower values indicate less democracy") +
  theme_pandem() +
  theme(panel.grid.major.y = element_blank())

pandem_single %>% 
  group_by(emlaw_cond_min, regime) %>% 
  summarize(n = n())

emlaw_cond_min	regime	n
Emergency response with legal instruments	Closed autocracy	9
Emergency response with legal instruments	Electoral autocracy	43
Emergency response with legal instruments	Electoral democracy	36
Emergency response with legal instruments	Liberal democracy	28
Emergency response without legal instruments	Closed autocracy	8
Emergency response without legal instruments	Electoral autocracy	14
Emergency response without legal instruments	Electoral democracy	1
No emergency response	Closed autocracy	2
No emergency response	Electoral autocracy	1
No emergency response	Liberal democracy	2

pandem_single %>% 
  filter(emlaw_cond_min == "Emergency response without legal instruments",
         regime == "Electoral democracy") %>% 
  select(country_name)

country_name
Sri Lanka

pandem_single %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = regime, y = fct_rev(emlaw_cond_min), color = emlaw_cond_min)) +
  geom_point(position = position_jitter(width = 0.1, height = 0.1)) +
  scale_color_viridis_d(option = "plasma", end = 0.8) +
  scale_x_discrete(labels = function(x) str_wrap(x, width = 15)) +
  scale_y_discrete(labels = function(x) str_wrap(x, width = 15)) +
  guides(color = FALSE) +
  labs(x = "V-Dem Regimes of the World index", y = NULL) +
  theme_pandem() +
  theme(panel.grid.major.y = element_blank())

Formal ICCPR derogations

Many pandemic-level public health measures necessarily entail imposing limitations on personal rights and freedoms. To curtail the spread of the virus, countries imposed lockdowns and enacted restrictions on movement and association. While countries are ostensibly free to make these decisions within their own borders, many countries are also bound to follow international agreements like the ICCPR. Signatories to the ICCPR have the ability to formally derogate their agreements on a temporary basis, but not all countries did this in 2020.

V-Dem doesn’t keep track of actual formal derogations, so we collected this data by hand.

derog_count <- derogations_clean %>% 
  filter(ratified == 1) %>% 
  count(derogate)
derog_count

derogate	n
0	150
1	23

Of the 173 countries that have ratified the ICCPR, 23 submitted formal derogations.

Typology of derogation

pandem_derog %>% 
  count(derogate, nonproportional)

derogate	nonproportional	n
0	FALSE	87
0	TRUE	23
1	FALSE	14
1	TRUE	4

pandem_derog %>% 
  count(type_clean)

type_clean	n
Derogated as intended	13
Derogated; measures not temporary, proportional, or necessary	5
Emergency declared; no formal derogation	74
No emergency; no formal derogation	28
Has not ratified ICCPR	8

A: Derogated as intended

Here are the countries that derogated, provided an end date, and used proportional or necessary measures:

pandem_derog %>% 
  filter(type == "A") %>% 
  select(country_name, derogation_start, derogation_end)

country_name	derogation_start	derogation_end
Azerbaijan	9/27/2020	12/12/2020
Dominican Republic	3/19/2020	3/2/2020
Ecuador	3/16/2020	11/9/2020
Ethiopia	4/8/2020	9/8/2020
Georgia	3/21/2020	7/1/2021
Guatemala	3/5/2020	9/21/2020
Kyrgyzstan	3/25/2020	5/10/2020
Namibia	3/18/2020	8/18/2020
Paraguay	3/16/2020	1/31/2021
Peru	3/15/2020	3/31/2021
Romania	3/16/2020	5/14/2020
Senegal	3/23/2020	6/30/2020
Thailand	3/25/2020	6/30/2020

B: Officially derogated but measures not temporary/proportional/necessary

Here are the countries that derogated and did not provide an end date or use proportional measures:

pandem_derog %>% 
  filter(type == "B") %>% 
  select(country_name, derogation_start, derogation_end, nonproportional)

country_name	derogation_start	derogation_end	nonproportional
Argentina	3/12/2020	3/12/2021	TRUE
Armenia	3/16/2020, 9/27/2020	9/11/2020, N/A	FALSE
Chile	3/18/2020	3/13/2021	TRUE
Colombia	3/17/2020, 5/6/2020	4/16/2020, 6/4/2020	TRUE
El Salvador	3/14/2020	5/29/2020	TRUE

C: Emergency declared but no formal derogation

Here are the ICCPR signatory countries that declared an emergency but did not formally derogate:

pandem_derog %>% 
  filter(type == "C") %>% 
  arrange(country_name) %>% 
  pull(country_name) %>% 
  matrix_from_vector(ncol = 4) %>% 
  kbl() %>% 
  kable_styling()

Albania	Gabon	Mexico	Slovenia
Algeria	Ghana	Mongolia	South Africa
Angola	Greece	Morocco	Spain
Australia	Guinea	Mozambique	Sudan
Austria	Honduras	Nepal	Sweden
Belarus	Hungary	Netherlands	Switzerland
Belgium	Ireland	New Zealand	Tajikistan
Bolivia	Israel	Niger	Togo
Botswana	Italy	Nigeria	Tunisia
Brazil	Jamaica	North Macedonia	Turkey
Bulgaria	Jordan	Norway	Uganda
Chad	Kazakhstan	Panama	Ukraine
Costa Rica	Kenya	Papua New Guinea	United States of America
Croatia	Lebanon	Philippines	Uruguay
Czech Republic	Lesotho	Poland	Uzbekistan
Denmark	Liberia	Portugal	Zambia
Egypt	Lithuania	Serbia	Zimbabwe
Finland	Madagascar	Sierra Leone
France	Malawi	Slovakia

D: No emergency, no formal derogation

And here are the ICCPR signatory countries that had no formal legal emergency and did not derogate:

pandem_derog %>% 
  filter(type == "D") %>% 
  arrange(country_name) %>% 
  pull(country_name) %>% 
  matrix_from_vector(ncol = 4) %>% 
  kbl() %>% 
  kable_styling()

Afghanistan	Cameroon	India	Nicaragua
Bangladesh	Canada	Indonesia	Pakistan
Benin	Central African Republic	Iraq	Qatar
Bosnia and Herzegovina	Democratic Republic of the Congo	Japan	Rwanda
Burkina Faso	Eritrea	Kuwait	Somalia
Burundi	Germany	Mali	Sri Lanka
Cambodia	Haiti	Mauritania	Turkmenistan

Human rights violations and democratic backsliding

An overarching fear as countries declared emergency pandemic measures is that these measures would serve as an excuse to violate human rights, limit the space for civil society, and lead to democratic backsliding.

The variety of pandemic-justified human rights violations differs by countries’ formal responses. Those that implemented emergency measures without a formal legal process were more likely to violate non-derogable rights and engage in discriminatory measures. Surprisingly, those that used legal instruments were more likely to enforce these measures harshly, potentially because there was a formal process backing up the measures—there are legislative teeth, so to speak.

violation_summary <- pandem_derog %>% 
  group_by(emlaw_cond_min) %>% 
  summarize(across(c(discrim, ndrights, pomviol),
                   ~mean(.)))

plot_violation_ndrights <- violation_summary %>% 
  pivot_longer(-emlaw_cond_min) %>% 
  filter(name == "ndrights") %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = value, y = fct_rev(emlaw_cond_min), color = emlaw_cond_min)) +
  geom_pointrange(aes(xmin = 0, xmax = value)) +
  guides(color = FALSE) +
  scale_x_continuous(labels = percent_format(accuracy = 1)) +
  scale_y_discrete(labels = function(x) str_wrap(x, width = 15)) +
  scale_color_viridis_d(option = "plasma", end = 0.8) +
  labs(x = "Proportion violating non-derogable rights", y = NULL,
       title = "Violations of nonderogable rights") +
  theme_pandem() +
  theme(panel.grid.major.y = element_blank())

plot_violation_discrim <- violation_summary %>% 
  pivot_longer(-emlaw_cond_min) %>% 
  filter(name == "discrim") %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = value, y = fct_rev(emlaw_cond_min), color = emlaw_cond_min)) +
  geom_pointrange(aes(xmin = 0, xmax = value)) +
  guides(color = FALSE) +
  scale_y_discrete(labels = function(x) str_wrap(x, width = 15)) +
  scale_color_viridis_d(option = "plasma", end = 0.8) +
  labs(x = "Average discriminatory measures", y = NULL,
       caption = "Original scale ranges from 0–3",
       title = "Discriminatory measures") +
  theme_pandem() +
  theme(panel.grid.major.y = element_blank())

plot_violation_pomviol <- violation_summary %>% 
  pivot_longer(-emlaw_cond_min) %>% 
  filter(name == "pomviol") %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = value, y = fct_rev(emlaw_cond_min), color = emlaw_cond_min)) +
  geom_pointrange(aes(xmin = 0, xmax = value)) +
  guides(color = FALSE) +
  scale_y_discrete(labels = function(x) str_wrap(x, width = 15)) +
  scale_color_viridis_d(option = "plasma", end = 0.8) +
  labs(x = "Average abusive enforcement", y = NULL,
       caption = "Original scale ranges from 0–3",
       title = "Abusive enforcement") +
  theme_pandem() +
  theme(panel.grid.major.y = element_blank())

plot_violation_discrim / plot_violation_ndrights / plot_violation_pomviol

The level of civil society openness varies substantially across these four types of derogations. Countries that formally derogated have far more open civil society than those that did not derogate. However, civil society openness isn’t necessarily a strong predictor of whether emergency measures are temporary or proportional. The 5 derogating countries that ended up abusing their privileges have relatively unrestricted and freely regulated civil societies.

Countries that did not official derogate have more restricted space for civil society, and countries that did not issue a formal legal emergency and did not formally derogate tend to have an even lower average civil society index. Not surprisingly, countries that have not ratified the ICCPR have highly restricted civil societies.

pandem_derog %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = v2xcs_ccsi, y = fct_rev(type_clean_letter), color = type_clean_letter)) +
  stat_summary(aes(fill = type_clean_letter), geom = "point", fun = "mean", 
               size = 4, pch = 23, color = "white", alpha = 0.4, 
               position = position_nudge(x = 0, y = -0.2)) +
  geom_quasirandom(groupOnX = FALSE, width = 0.1) +
  guides(color = FALSE, fill = FALSE) +
  scale_y_discrete(labels = function(x) str_wrap(x, width = 15)) +
  scale_color_viridis_d(option = "plasma", end = 0.8) +
  scale_fill_viridis_d(option = "plasma", end = 0.8) +
  coord_cartesian(xlim = c(0, 1)) +
  labs(x = "Average V-Dem core civil society index", y = NULL,
       caption = "Diamonds show mean value; lower values indicate more limited civil society") +
  theme_pandem() +
  theme(panel.grid.major.y = element_blank())

pandem_derog %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = v2xcs_ccsi, y = pandem)) +
  geom_point(aes(color = type_clean_letter)) +
  geom_smooth(method = "lm") +
  scale_color_viridis_d(option = "plasma", end = 0.95) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(ncol = 2)) +
  coord_cartesian(xlim = c(0, 1)) +
  labs(x = "V-Dem core civil society index", y = "Pandemic violations index", color = NULL) +
  theme_pandem()

pandem_derog %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = v2xcs_ccsi, y = panback)) +
  geom_point(aes(color = type_clean_letter)) +
  geom_smooth(method = "gam") +
  scale_color_viridis_d(option = "plasma", end = 0.95) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(ncol = 2)) +
  coord_cartesian(xlim = c(0, 1), ylim = c(0, 0.5)) +
  labs(x = "V-Dem core civil society index", y = "Pandemic backsliding index", color = NULL) +
  theme_pandem()

pandem_derog %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = v2x_libdem, y = pandem)) +
  geom_point(aes(color = type_clean_letter)) +
  geom_smooth(method = "lm") +
  scale_color_viridis_d(option = "plasma", end = 0.8) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(ncol = 2)) +
  labs(x = "V-Dem liberal democracy index", y = "Pandemic violations index", color = NULL) +
  theme_pandem()

pandem_derog %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = v2x_libdem, y = panback)) +
  geom_point(aes(color = type_clean_letter)) +
  geom_smooth(method = "gam") +
  scale_color_viridis_d(option = "plasma", end = 0.8) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(ncol = 2)) +
  coord_cartesian(ylim = c(0, 0.5)) +
  labs(x = "V-Dem liberal democracy index", y = "Pandemic backsliding index", color = NULL) +
  theme_pandem()

Copyright © 2021 Suparna Chaudhry and Andrew Heiss. Licensed under the MIT License. Code available on GitHub.