Model details

We analyze the effect of the various combinations of organizational features and donor characteristics with the following hierarchical Bayesian multinomial logit model:

\[ \begin{aligned} \beta &\sim \operatorname{Multivariate} \mathcal{N}(Z \Gamma, \xi) \\ y &\sim \operatorname{Multinomial\ logit}(X \beta, \varepsilon) \end{aligned} \]

where $y$ = which alternative the respondent chooses to donate to, $X$ = design matrix of attribute levels (i.e. organizations, issue areas, organizational practices, funding sources, and government relations), $\beta$ = latent individual preferences for the attribute levels, $Z$ = matrix of individual-level covariates (i.e. demographics, political knowledge, attitudes towards charity, etc.), $\Gamma$ = matrix of coefficients mapping individual-level covariates onto the latent individual-level preferences, and $\varepsilon$ and $\xi$ = errors. Simply put, the first level of the model predicts individual donor preferences for various combinations of features (e.g. the combination of human rights issues, financial transparency, government funding, and government crackdown), while the second level of the model uses these fitted preferences to predict the ultimate choice of donation.

We collected many individual level covariates in our survey. To aid in analysis, we categorized these survey questions into five broader theoretical themes that include smaller groups of variables. Table A1 shows how we map individual survey questions to different groups. In this paper, we base our simulated market on a model that uses all individual characteristics in the first level:

\[ \text{Donation preferences } (\beta) \sim \operatorname{Multivariate} \mathcal{N}(Z \Gamma, \xi) \]

where:

\[ \begin{aligned} Z\Gamma =& \Gamma_a \text{Public affairs} + \Gamma_b\text{Political ideology} + \Gamma_c \text{Social views} + \\ & \Gamma_d \text{Charity and voluntarism} + \Gamma_e \text{Demographics} \end{aligned} \]

The alphabetic subscripts for the $\Gamma$ coefficients here (i.e. $\Gamma_a$) represent multiple values, since broader categories like “Public affairs” comprise multiple variables, each with their own coefficients.

The second level of the model incorporates the $\beta$ estimates from the first level and uses a design matrix of organizational characteristics:

\[ \text{Donation choice } (y) \sim \operatorname{Multinomial\ logit}(X \beta, \varepsilon) \]

where (count of distinct values included in parentheses):

\[ \begin{aligned} X = \{&\text{Organization } (4),\ \text{Issue area } (4),\ \text{Organizational practices } (2), \\ & \text{Funding sources } (3),\ \text{Government relations } (3)\} \end{aligned} \]

Table 1: Individual covariates used in $Z$ to estmate the $\Gamma$s in the first level of the model, or $\operatorname{Multivariate} \mathcal{N}(Z \Gamma, \xi)$
Group	Survey question
Public affairs
Public affairs knowledge	Q2.1: How often do you follow national news?
	Q2.2: How often do you follow international news?
	Q2.3: Which mediums do you use to follow news?
	Q2.4: How often would you say you follow what’s going on in government and public affairs?
	Q5.7: Have you ever traveled to a developing country?
Public affairs activity	Q5.1: Did you vote in the last election?
Political ideology
Ideology	Q5.2: 7-point scale on which the political views that people might hold are arranged from extremely liberal (left) to extremely conservative (right).
Social views
Public affairs trust	Q5.6: 7-point scale of trust in political institutions and the state, arranged from no trust (left) to complete trust (right)
Social ideology	Q5.11: 7-point scale of agreement with statement “People should be more charitable towards others in society”, from strongly agree (1) to strongly disagree (7)
Religiosity	Q5.8: How often do you attend religious or worship services, not including weddings and funerals?
	Q5.9: How important is religion in your life?
	Q5.10: What is your current religion, if any?
Charity and voluntarism
Charity trust	Q2.7: How important is it that you trust a charity before giving to it?
Charity trust	Q2.8: How much do you trust charities?
Charity activity	Q2.5: How often do you donate to charity?
Charity activity	Q2.6: How much did you donate to charity last year?
Volunteer activity	Q2.9: Have you volunteered in the past 12 months?
Volunteer activity	Q2.10: How often do you volunteer?
Activism activity	Q5.4: Historically, how involved have you been in activist causes?
Activism activity	Q5.5: Historically, how involved has your family been in activist causes?
Association membership	Q5.3: List of possible types of organizations and associations
Demographics
Gender	Q5.12: What is your gender?
Marital status	Q5.13: Are you now married, widowed, divorced, separated, or never married?
Education	Q5.14: What is the highest degree or level of school you have completed?
Income	Q5.15: What is your annual household income before taxes?
Race	Q5.16: Choose one or more races that you consider yourself to be:
Age	Q5.17: How old are you?

Survey experiment

First demographic section

Q2.1: How often do you follow national news?

Single answer

Multiple times a day
Every day
Once a week
Hardly ever
Never

Q2.2: How often do you follow international news?

Single answer

Always
Sometimes
Never

Q2.3: Which mediums do you use to follow news? (Select all that apply.)

Multiple answers allowed

TV
Print
Online (excluding social media)
Social media
Radio
Email newsletters
News app

Q2.4: Some people seem to follow what’s going on in government and public affairs most of the time, whether there’s an election going on or not. Others aren’t that interested. How often would you say you follow what’s going on in government and public affairs?

Single answer

Most of the time
Some of the time
Only now and then
Hardly at all

Q2.5: How often do you donate to charity (with either cash or in-kind)?

Single answer

Once a week
Once a month
Once every three months
Once every six months
Once a year
Once every few years
Never

Terminate if Q2.5 == “Once every few years” OR Q2.5 == “Never”

Q2.6: How much did you donate to charity last year?

Single answer

$1 to $49
$50 to $99
$100 to $499
$500 to $999
$1000 to $4,999
$5000 to $9,999
$10,000 or more

Q2.7: On a scale of not at all important (1) to essential (7), how important is it for you to trust charities?

Single answer

1 (Not at all important)
2
3
4
5
6
7 (Essential)

Q2.8: On a scale of no trust at all (1) to complete trust (7), how much do you trust charities?

Single answer

1 (No trust at all)
2
3
4
5
6
7 (Complete trust)

Q2.9: Have you volunteered in the past 12 months?

Single answer

Display Q2.10 if Q2.9 == “Yes”

Q2.10: How often do you volunteer?

Single answer

Once a week
Once a month
Once every three months
Once every six months
Once a year
Once every few years

Q2.11: Please select blue from the following list:

Single answer

Red
Yellow
Blue
Green

Terminate if Q2.11 != “Blue”

Conjoint explanation

Q3.1: In the following set of questions, we will ask you to select organizations you would donate to. The following terms will be important. Please read through this list carefully.

Organizations:

Amnesty International: A London-based non-governmental organization known for its focus on human rights.
Greenpeace: An independent, nonprofit, global campaigning organization known for using non-violent, creative confrontation to expose global environmental problems and their causes.
Oxfam: An international group known for providing help to poor countries and disaster areas, with a focus on helping create lasting solutions to the injustice of poverty.
Red Cross: An international organization known for caring for the wounded, sick, and homeless in wartime and following natural disasters.

Issue areas:

Emergency response: Respond to situations that pose an immediate risk to health, life, property, or the environment.
Environment: Protecting the natural world and the impact of human activity on its condition.
Human rights: Protect the inalienable fundamental rights to which a person is inherently entitled simply because he or she is a human being.
Refugee relief: Provide relief for those who have been forced to flee his or her country because of persecution, war or violence.

Organizational practices:

Financial transparency: Organization discloses information regarding its donations and financial allocations in a timely and reliable manner.
Accountability: Organization undergoes a regular third-party audit to ensure that it is meeting its program goals and obligations.

Funding sources:

Funded primarily by many small private donations: Funds by individuals who make small independent contributions.
Funded primarily by a handful of wealthy private donors: Funds by wealthy individuals or families, who receive tax deductions for donations.
Funded primarily by government grants: Non-repayable funds gifted by a government department.

Relationship with host government:

Friendly relationship with government: Organization has a friendly relationship with its host government.
Criticized by government: Organization faces public condemnation from the government.
Under government crackdown: Host government has undertaken official action to limit or stop the organization.

Q3.2: For each of the next 12 questions, imagine you are selecting an organization you will donate to and that each of the listed organizations exists.

Conjoint questions

Q4.1–12: Which of the following organizations would you donate to?

Single option or “none” selected

	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	None
Organization	Random	Random	Random	—
Issue area	Random	Random	Random	—
Financial transparency	Random	Random	Random	—
Accountability	Random	Random	Random	—
Funding sources	Random	Random	Random	—
Relationship with host government	Random	Random	Random	—

Additional demographic questions

Q5.1: Did you vote in the last election?

Single answer

Q5.2: On a scale of extremely liberal (1) to extremely conservative (7), how would you describe your political views?

Single answer

1 (Extremely liberal)
2
3
4
5
6
7 (Extremely conservative)

Q5.3: Here is a list of different types of voluntary organizations. For each organization, indicate whether you are an active member, an inactive member, or not a member of that type of organization:

Matrix table

	Active member	Inactive member	Don’t belong
Church or religious organization	•	•	•
Sport or recreational organization	•	•	•
Art, music, or educational organization	•	•	•
Labor union	•	•	•
Political party	•	•	•
Environmental organization	•	•	•
Professional association	•	•	•
Humanitarian or charitable organization	•	•	•
Consumer organization	•	•	•
Other organization	•	•	•

Q5.4: Historically, how involved have you been in activist causes?

Single answer

Extremely involved
Very involved
Moderately involved
Slightly involved
Never involved

Q5.5: Historically, how involved has your family been in activist causes?

Single answer

Extremely involved
Very involved
Moderately involved
Slightly involved
Never involved

Q5.6: On a scale of no trust (1) to complete trust (7), how much do you trust political institutions and the state?

Single answer

1 (No trust)
2
3
4
5
6
7 (Complete trust)

Q5.7: Have you ever traveled to a developing country?

Single answer

Q5.8: How often do you attend religious or worship services, not including weddings and funerals?

Single answer

More than once a week
Once a week
Once or twice a month
A few times a year
Seldom
Never
Don’t know

Q5.9: How important is religion in your life?

Single answer

Extremely important
Very important
Moderately important
Slightly important
Not at all important

Q5.10: What is your current religion, if any?

Single answer

Catholic (including Roman Catholic and Orthodox)
Protestant (United Church of Canada, Anglican, Orthodox, Baptist, Lutheran)
Christian Orthodox
Jewish
Muslim
Sikh
Hindu
Buddhist
Atheist (do not believe in God)
Other: _________

Q5.11: On a scale of strongly agree (1) to strongly disagree (7), rate your response to the following statement: People should be more charitable towards others in society.

Single answer

1 (Strongly agree)
2
3
4
5
6
7 (Strongly disagree)

Q5.12: What is your gender?

Single answer

Male
Female
Transgender
Prefer not to say
Other: _________

Q5.13: Are you now married, widowed, divorced, separated, or never married?

Single answer

Married
Widowed
Divorced
Separated
Never married

Q5.14: What is the highest degree or level of school you have completed?

Single answer

Less than high school
High school graduate
Some college
2 year degree
4 year degree
Graduate or professional degree
Doctorate

Q5.15: What is your annual household income before taxes?

Single answer

Less than $10,000
$10,000 to $19,999
$20,000 to $29,999
$30,000 to $39,999
$40,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $59,999
$60,000 to $69,999
$70,000 to $79,999
$80,000 to $89,999
$90,000 to $99,999
$100,000 to $149,999
$150,000 to $199,999
$200,000 to $299,999
$300,000 or more

Q5.16: Choose one or more races that you consider yourself to be:

Multiple answers allowed

White
Black or African American
American Indian or Alaska Native
Asian
Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander
Other: _________

Q5.17: How old are you?

Single answer

Under 18
18 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 - 74
75 - 84
85 or older

Q5.18: What is your ZIP code?

Text field

Model details

Survey experiment

Consent

First demographic section

Conjoint explanation

Conjoint questions

Additional demographic questions