The seriousness of trafficking in a country influences its tier rating. Countries are more likely to receive worse tier ratings when they act as either an origin or a destination country. This likely shows that the TIP report picks up on increases in the sending and receiving of trafficked people. Conversely, the report does not appear to condemn countries that see increases in transitory trafficking—these countries are more likely to receive better tier ratings as trafficking through their borders worsens.

Predict tier using simple model

Predict tier using full model

Full results from all models

Tier rating
Simple model Full model Simple with categorical intensity
Trafficking intensity in countries of origin 0.196*** 0.067***
(0.016) (0.009)
Trafficking intensity in transit countries -0.048*** -0.066***
(0.019) (0.010)
Trafficking intensity in destination countries 0.125*** 0.038***
(0.019) (0.010)
In TIP report 2.154***
(0.034)
Total population (logged) -0.050***
(0.009)
NGO density 0.033***
(0.009)
Worse civil liberties 0.065***
(0.003)
Regional density of criminalization -0.261***
(0.045)
2000 TIP protocol ratification 0.048*
(0.026)
Origin intensity (low) 0.196
(0.132)
Origin intensity (medium) 0.306***
(0.106)
Origin intensity (high) 0.437***
(0.115)
Origin intensity (very high) 0.546***
(0.127)
Transit intensity (low) -0.244***
(0.075)
Transit intensity (medium) -0.089
(0.069)
Transit intensity (high) -0.091
(0.088)
Transit intensity (very high) -0.363***
(0.115)
Destination intensity (low) 0.278***
(0.084)
Destination intensity (medium) 0.210***
(0.076)
Destination intensity (high) -0.018
(0.100)
Destination intensity (very high) 0.176
(0.141)
Constant 0.982*** 0.062 1.539***
(0.058) (0.128) (0.109)
Observations 1,670 1,604 724
R2 0.098 0.775 0.067
Adjusted R2 0.096 0.774 0.051
Residual Std. Error 0.901 (df = 1666) 0.438 (df = 1594) 0.661 (df = 711)
F Statistic 60.338*** (df = 3; 1666) 611.392*** (df = 9; 1594) 4.249*** (df = 12; 711)
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01